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Only to be considered when a line moves more than a few points, middling can be used to both maximize your profits on a particular bet or hedge against a loss. The second strategy we will discuss is playing key numbers. Key numbers are much more relevant in football and to a lesser extent, basketball than they are in other sports with fixed runlines or pucklines like baseball and hockey. Key numbers in football especially in the NFL are very important. Key numbers are numbers that, more often than not, end up being the score differential that a game hinges on.
Given that a touchdown and an extra point is worth seven points, and a field goal is worth three points, the key numbers in football are 3 and 7. These key numbers are crucial to betting NFL point spreads. Per Wizard of Odds , a 3 point margin of victory occurs A 7 point margin of victory occurs 9.
A full table can be found on their page, which uses data from to , but it is safe to say that 3 and 7 are the biggest key numbers in the NFL. Knowing where the line is going to move is essential to playing key numbers and getting good prices on your bets. The third strategy we will discuss in the world of line movement is buying points. Buying points allows the bettor the option of moving the point spread or totals in your favor when betting on football or basketball.
When betting favorites, buying points allows a bettor to take off a half point, a full point, or 1. And when betting underdogs, a bettor can add a half point, a full point, or 1. Sportsbooks vary in the price of buying points, but the general rule is that a half point is worth an extra ten cents in juice.
In our earlier NFL example, if you wanted to buy points with the Ravens Knowing and playing key numbers is also crucial to buying points, and sportsbooks know this. Most sportsbooks will charge twenty-five cents as opposed to ten cents when buying on or off key numbers of 3 or 7.
Being able to project line movement will help you buy points in a certain direction away from line movement. For example, if you think the Ravens Sign in. Log into your account. Forgot your password? Password recovery. Recover your password. Get help. Line Movement. NHL Week 4. What we learned. Real Kyper at Noon EP. A stacked Saturday. Super Bowl LV prop betting guide.
All in on the Chiefs. Super Bowl LV betting guide. Volkov vs Overeem. UFC Vegas 18 select fight betting preview. Waste Management Phoenix Open betting preview. Waste Management Phoenix Open outrights and matchups preview. Farmers Insurance Open betting preview. What is the LPL? League of Legends in China. NBA Finals betting preview. Heat vs Lakers. Western Conference Finals betting preview. Clippers vs Nuggets Game 1. Home Betting What is line movement? How does it work?
Betting What is Strokes Gained? What golf bettors need to know. What is a prop bet? Are they worth your time? What is the puck line? How do you bet it? What golf bettors need to know Hedging your bets. Find value hedging in sports betting The ultimate guide to betting on live golf This redistribution of price would have a similar effect to altering the spread numbers themselves. Sportsbooks employ the basic economic principles of supply and demand. With an increase in demand, comes greater quantity.
If the supply betting volume is in excess of what a sportsbook wants, they make it less desirable, artificially reducing the demand. With a decrease in demand, comes a diminished number of bettors taking the line. Weather always plays a role in the outcome of a game. For example, if an NFL game is set to be played outside, and snow is in the forecast, the game is likely to have fewer points scored. If a key player for a team playing is injured think the Patriots, without Tom Brady sportsbooks will re-calibrate their odds or line to reflect this information.
If the Patriots were heavily favored in light of this new information, they might become the underdogs. Sometimes coaches make the decision to withhold their top players, to mitigate the risk of injury. If this information is leaked, it will drastically alter the odds or line bookmakers place on the event. Occasionally, a coach will also make a last minute decision to switch out their starting goaltender NHL or starting pitcher MLB. This will drastically alter the odds or line placed on a game, minutes before the action begins.
If the Montreal Canadiens decided at the last minute the give Carey Price a night of rest and play Antti Niemi, this would doubtless impact the line or odds sportsbooks assigned to that game. Online sportsbooks are all privy to all of their bettors betting history. Usually, the sharps have a higher volume of bets as well as a sizeable bankroll to back their accounts up.
This can be an advantageous strategy for beginner bettors in say football, who are willing to monitor the NFL Vegas lines closely. Retail investors follow. The same is true with sports betting. Sportsbooks will never make any public declaration as to why they changed their vegas betting lines. You will always have to make deducements based on your knowledge of sports and sports betting themselves.
For example, say the majority of sharps bet on the Pittsburgh Penguins to beat the New York Rangers at This might not seem like a huge difference, but it adds up in a very significant way over the long run. Read our line shopping article for a deeper dive into this phenomenon. In football, there are key numbers that bookmakers keep in mind when they are setting the spread and totals.
Clippers vs Nuggets Game 1. Read more. What we learned Real Kyper. A stacked Saturday Most recent. Volkov vs Overeem Betting What is Strokes Gained? What golf bettors need to know What is a prop bet? Are they worth your time? What is the puck line? How do you bet it? Hedging your bets. Find value hedging in sports betting The ultimate guide to betting on live golf What is parlay betting?
Pros and cons What is line movement? How does it work? Your guide to a variety of sports betting options The ultimate bankroll management guide for sports betting What is a futures bet? But while there are advantages to jumping on a line early, there can also be advantages to sitting back and watching to see how the line moves. That can definitely be the case if you are more interested in betting on the underdog, as you may be able to simply wait and watch the value grow.
Overall, line movements can be fairly predictable. Many lines remain fairly stagnant, eventually moving a half-point or so against the favorite as the public bets on the favorite , and then perhaps coming back to the original line after the underdog bettors get their action in.
For example, when a line increases by a full point or more, the key is to watch how quickly this movement takes place. If a team opens at On the other hand, if a team opens at You might expect the New Orleans Saints to be huge favorites this week, and when they open at -2, something does not seem right. If the line does not move or goes the other direction against New Orleans to Regardless, it is always extremely important to follow line moves carefully and use your gut feeling on when to jump in and place a bet on the side you want before it becomes too late.
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